Ridiculous exchange rates, and why China should utterly disregard the US liberal world order

More reason that I am skeptical of this so called “free market economy.” Some Chinese colleagues tell me that Russia is poor, even made a joke about inviting some Russian girl to KFC for a meal. How there are Russians, Ukrainians working in China and earning much more in China than they can in Russia. In the other direction, vacations to Russia are super cheap for Chinese. Also, a Chinese who works in America saves up a ton because stuff in China is so much cheaper.

Reminds me of how back in the old days in China, cars were in short supply, and very expensive. Chinese cars were there, they were not good but they worked, and not many were produced. I think back in the 80s, even television was quite a new thing, and most families did not even have refrigerators. The stuff from abroad was way more expensive than the stuff manufactured at home. With the brand names like Nike, etc, America can leech a ton of money from idiot status climbing Chinese.

On the other hand, PRC Chinese in the 80s were reasonably well educated and skilled, just quite materially poor at the superficial level. Many people wanted to go abroad because what they made in America in dollars traded to RMB would easily be ten times higher than a good salary at some state owned company. The people who went into business then could make a fortune without much difficulty since that market economy stuff was in its infancy. There are even semi-illiterate people who made a fortune in that era.

This people in third world countries earn a dollar a day bullshit is really misleading because per exchange rate stuff is also often like 10x cheaper. By common sense, you can’t survive on a dollar a day in America.

I am not familiar with prices in Russia, but I am aware of the Russian default in 1998, and I am not surprised that stuff is cheaper in Russia than in China per exchange, which means Russia is in some sense poorer than China. I would expect that actual real not virtual based on some artificial economic numbers standard of living in Russia is about the same or somewhat higher than in China, overall.

That salaries are lower also has to do with more skilled people in Russia and China than in US in many areas. Simple supply and demand. So in some sense, Russia and China are wealthier, because in a scenario of mutual economic embargo, the US with lower productive ability would lose.

I mentioned to that colleague how Russia has Yandex, VK, its own internet ecosystem, and that integrated development environment Intellij was also developed by Russians (the company was started by three Russians in Prague I believe with offices in Moscow, Boston, etc). It’s a really great product that creates ton of value but it won’t really earn much money beyond keeping their company alive due to the nature of the product. Similarly, I have observed that in US companies, Russians tend to create more value than they get in terms of salary and stock options. It has to do with their being more skilled obviously. In contrast, there is quite inconsistency between all the Indians CEOs in America and the dearth of indigenous software industry in India. I saw startups in Silicon Valley hire Russians and Belarussians because they are very good and ridiculously cheap by American standards. I also read that North Korea tried to hire ex-Soviet experts in nuclear weapons in the 90s on $1500-3000 per month.

I was also told that in the 1980s Deng and his liberal idiots wasted a ton of money purchasing overpriced stuff from Western countries, part of the reason was they wanted more excuses to go abroad as well. That money, resource, and energy could have been spent finishing up that passenger airliner 运-10 which they instead cancelled. They blamed isolationist economic policy, touted opening up and reform, all that. There was foreign investment to set up factories in China which would produce stuff that would be extremely cheap for Americans due to the grossly asymmetric exchange rate. Those comprador capitalists got rich in the process. Which reminds me of how my perceptive ABC friend once remarked that Deng was basically bringing back China to the pre revolution days with concessions in big cities like Shanghai, Tianjin, with white Westerners on top, comprador pseudo-Westernized Chinese second, and the Chinese Chinese the lowest. The cultural revolution was not enough to remove him, Liu Shaoqi was permanently disposed of, but Mao later brought back Deng, who eventually ousted Hua Guofeng from the number one spot in 1981. Now that the damage has been done, people in China appreciate the cultural revolution more, if not for that, the situation likely would have been worse or much worse, China could have experienced similar to what Russia did in the 90s. Because it took some time to reverse the far left policies during the cultural revolution, and even after that, the right wing liberals were scared that it would repeat, which inhibited their behavior to some degree.

I was amused when someone said to me in Chinese along the likes of

To the rich capitalists in China (especially if they are comprador), fear of the CPC is deep to the bone, and a yearning for free America flows in their blood.

Many of them are basically status whoring and want to transfer their wealth to America out of fear that the CPC will eventually take it away from them, but at the same time, their sending their kids abroad and investing abroad in real estate will already make the CPC distrust them. They are willing to pay ridiculous tuition in America, and I would not be surprised if China eventually turns against the Chinese with US degree. Under Xi Jinping and with the ever growing wealth and power of the country, the ethos is much more nationalistic and will only go further in that direction.

I think PRC Chinese are way more woke than Americans are. Americans have been under the yoke of Jewish liberal economic political mental bondage for too long, that culture is too deeply engrained in the English language. I increasingly realize how that had much to do with the cultural revolution, which for all the damage it did, was also quite positive in many regards for the national consciousness and economic development. Like, from what I’ve read and been told, in the 1970s China was not that much behind America in semiconductors and CPUs (which were more in their infancy during that time), and ahead of Japan and South Korea, but the policies of reform and opening up ruined it all. This person I talked to remarked how silly it is when those liberal Chinese talk about how they were rich pre-revolution, and then after reform and opening up, they went to America, after suffering some persecution during the cultural revolution, and that that is basically a way of expressing disapproval for the CPC. I do think that rule of law is bullshit and basically a mechanism for the rich and liberal to rule and manipulate, and that the way of acting during the cultural revolution, for all its problems, is in its essence way more actually democratic than anything that actually goes on in so called liberal democratic societies. America is good at tricking their way into money and power but not actually very good at fighting. They usually only win when they’re way more militarily advanced than their opponent, which doesn’t prove much. On the other hand, the PLA, Maoist, Stalinist, whatever you call it, way of simply dispossessing people who are popularly disliked without regard for this fake Western rule of law and protection of private property is much more direct and fair. You don’t have anywhere near as many rich parasitic assholes using their money and formal position and lawyers and control of media to perpetuate their privilege and in the process create a culture that more or less extinguishes any hope of ending it and creates a population of political stooges.

America tried to export that to China too after reform and opening up with the Chinese right wing compradors as their agents in China. But looks like they are not going to be successful. China may well go exact reverse of what America wants. A 21st century setting cultural revolution or 镇反 I wouldn’t say is likely but surely it’s possible, especially if US-China relations go completely down the drain, as would happen in say a military conflict, as did happen in Korea from 1950-1953. I’ll conclude by copying some Chinese over. By the way, I think copyright, patent law, intellectual property are also liberal bullshit. China should try to disregard those as much as it can get away with.

横扫一切牛鬼蛇神一个无产阶级文化大革命的高潮,正在占世界人口1/4的社会主义中国兴起。
在短短的几个月内,在党中央和毛主席的战斗号召下,亿万工农兵群众、广大革命干部和革命的知识分子,以毛泽东思想为武器,横扫盘踞在思想文化阵地上的大量牛鬼蛇神。其势如暴风骤雨,迅猛异常,打碎了多少年来剥削阶级强加在他们身上的精神枷锁,把所谓资产阶级的“专家”、“学者”、“权威”、“祖师爷”打得落花流水,使他们威风扫地。
毛主席教导我们,在我国,在所有制的社会主义改造基本完成以后,阶级斗争并没有结束。“无产阶级和资产阶级之间的阶级斗争,各派政治力量之间的阶级斗争,无产阶级和资产阶级之间在意识形态方面的阶级斗争,是长时期的,曲折的,有时甚至是很激烈的。无产阶级要按照自己的世界观改造世界,资产阶级也要按照自己的世界观改造世界。在这一方面,社会主义和资本主义之间谁胜谁负的问题还没有真正解决。”我国解放16年以来无产阶级和资产阶级在意识形态领域内的阶级斗争,一直是十分激烈的。目前的社会主义文化大革命,正是这个斗争的继续发展。这场斗争是不可避免的。无产阶级和一切剥削阶级的意识形态是根本对立的,是不能和平共处的。无产阶级革命,是要消灭一切剥削阶级、消灭一切剥削制度的革命,是要逐步消灭工农之间、城乡之间、脑力劳动和体力劳动之间的差别的最彻底的革命,这不能不遇到剥削阶级最顽强的反抗。
革命的根本问题是政权问题。上层建筑的各个领域,意识形态、宗教、艺术、法律、政权,最中心的是政权。有了政权,就有了一切。没有政权,就丧失一切。因此,无产阶级在夺取政权之后,无论有着怎样千头万绪的事,都永远不要忘记政权,不要忘记方向,不要失掉中心。忘记了政权,就是忘记了政治,忘记了马克思主义的根本观点。变成了经济主义无政府主义、空想主义,那就是糊涂人。无产阶级和资产阶级之间在意识形态领域内的阶级斗争,归根到底,就是争夺领导权的斗争。剥削阶级的枪杆子被缴械了,印把子被人民夺过来了,但是,他们脑袋里的反动思想还存在着。我们推翻了他们的统治,没收了他们的财产,并不等于没收了他们脑袋里的反动思想,剥削阶级统治了劳动人民几千年,他们垄断了由劳动人民创造的文化,反过来用以欺骗、愚弄、麻醉劳动人民,巩固他们的反动政权。几千年来,他们的思想是统治的思想,在社会上不能不有广泛的影响。他们的反动统治被推翻以后,他们是不死心的,总是企图利用他们过去这类的影响,为资本主义在政治上、经济上的复辟进行舆论准备。解放16年来思想文化战线上的连续不断地斗争,直到这次大大小小“三家村”反党反社会主义黑线的被揭露,就是一场复辟和反复辟的斗争。
在资产阶级革命时期,资产阶级为了夺取政权,也是首先从意识形态上进行准备,搞资产阶级的文化革命。资产阶级革命是由一个剥削阶级代替另一个剥削阶级,尚且要经过多次反复,经过多少次的革命、复辟和反复辟的斗争。资产阶级革命从思想准备到夺取政权,在欧洲的许多国家,都进行了几百年之久。无产阶级革命是彻底结束一切剥削制度的革命,更不能幻想剥削阶级会乖乖地听任无产阶级剥夺他们的一切特权,而不想恢复他们的统治。他们人还在,心不死,必然要象列宁所说的那样,以十倍的疯狂,来企图恢复他们失去的天堂。赫鲁晓夫修正主义集团在苏联篡党,篡军,篡政,这个事实,对全世界无产阶级说来,是一个非常严重的教训。目前中国那些资产阶级代表人物,那些资产阶级“学者权威”,他们所做的,就是资本主义复辟的梦。他们的政治统治被推翻了,但是他们还是要拼命维持所谓学术“权威”,制造复辟舆论,同我们争夺群众,争夺年青一代和将来一代。
资产阶级进行反封建的文化革命,到夺得政权的时候就结束了。无产阶级的文化革命,是反对一切剥削阶级意识形态的文化革命。这种文化革命的性质,同资产阶级的文化革命是截然不同的。这种文化革命,只有在无产阶级夺得政权以后,取得了政治的、经济的、文化的先决条件,才能为这种文化革命开辟最广阔的道路。
无产阶级文化革命,是要彻底破除几千年来一切剥削阶级所造成的毒害人民的旧思想、旧文化、旧风俗、旧习惯,在广大人民群众中,创造和形成崭新的无产阶级的新思想、新文化、新风俗、新习惯。这是人类历史上空前未有的移风易俗的伟大事业。对于封建阶级和资产阶级的一切遗产、风俗、习惯,都必须用无产阶级的世界观加以透彻的批判。在人民生活中清除旧社会的恶习,是需要时间的。但是,解放以来的经验证明,如果充分发动了群众,走群众路线,使移风易俗成为真正广大的群众运动,那末,见效就可能快起来。
资产阶级的文化革命,是为少数新剥削阶级服务的,它只能由少数人参加,无产阶级的文化革命,是为广大劳动人民服务的,和最大多数劳动人民的利益是一致的。所以,这能吸引和团结广大劳动人民参加。资产阶级启蒙人物总是卑视群众,把群众当作愚民,把自己看成是人民的当然支配者。
无产阶级思想革命家同他们根本相反,是全心全意为人民服务的,目的是在唤起人民群众的自觉,为最广大的人民群众的利益而奋斗。
资产阶级的卑鄙的自私自利,抑制不住自己对于人民群众的仇恨心。马克思说:“政治经济学所研究的材料的特殊性质,会把人心中最激烈最卑鄙最恶劣的感情,代表私人利益的仇神,召唤到战场上来反对它。”被推翻了的资产阶级也还是这样。
目前,我国无产阶级文化大革命的规模和声势,在人类历史上还不曾有过,它的威力之大,来势之猛,在运动中所迸发出的劳动人民无限的智慧,远远超出了资产阶级老爷们的想象。事实雄辩地证明,毛泽东思想一旦掌握了群众,就成为威力无穷的精神原子弹。这一场文化大革命,正在大大推动中国人民社会义事业的前进,也必将对世界的现在和未来,发生不可估量的深远影响。
我国轰轰烈烈的文化大革命,引起了帝国主义、现代修正主义和各国反动派的惊慌和混乱。他们一会儿想入非非,说什么我们的文化大革命,表明了中国下一代“和平演变”已经有了希望呀;他们一会儿又悲观失望,说什么一切消息表明,共产党的统治还是十分巩固呀;他们一会儿又表现出无限迷茫,说什么要对中国所发生的事情随时作出准确判断的真正的“中国通”是永远不可能有的呀。亲爱的先生们,你们的胡思乱想总是同历史的发展背道而驰的。人类历史上空前的这一场无产阶级文化大革命的开展和胜利,敲响了中国土地上残存的资本主义势力的丧钟,也敲响了帝国主义、现代修正主义和一切反动派的丧钟。你们的日子不会长久了。
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为什么美国的自由主义经济观念很多是荒谬并反常识的

昨天,在微信上看到了别人转载某已在微博上被删掉的据说来自于一位华为资深工程师的关于华为芯片备胎以及最近的美国政府对高通谷歌给华为提供核心芯片和安卓系统技术的“禁令”的文章,读了之后启发了我对经济的一些想法。我基本没学什么经济,对它没那么感兴趣,也觉得他本质上是比较扯淡的学科,觉得经济学家或专家要不就在数学界做一些过于理想化非常不完美的对经济的数学模型和估计,要不就是一些为了利益集团忽悠的人。可以,据我的经验,从严谨证明为主的纯数学,到模型为主统计和机器学习,到在公司里为业务需求做软件开发,到炒过股票买过房子知道期权,期货,信用违约互换等金融衍生工具的基本规则,到读过不少中英文的历史观政治观经常对立的文史哲文献,我的确积累了一些自己对经济的看法,准备在此文里解释一下。

经济的本质其实是优化物质资源,而非市场经济或虚拟的金钱

美国人比较盲目相信资本主义市场信号,觉得经济需求都可以用市场信号调整,并且资本主义提供的发财的机会是最好的激励人创造大经济价值。这一点不光是不太对,都可以说是反常识的。这我觉得不用多解释。现在给个很简单的例子。如果,自由市场信号那么管用,那就不会出08年09年那种危机了,也不会出30年代的那种大萧条了。

还有例子就是Facebook和Google的市值可能一个超过5000亿,一个超过8000亿,Intel的只有个2000亿。从市场经济角度,前者远远更有价值,但实际上,前者相对容易在技术上复制,后者就很难,要不是白痴都知道后者实际上远远更有价值,而前者的市值大多来自于利用美国的势力当媒体及广告寄生虫。

一个国家的实际经济实力根本源于它物质研发,生产和操作的先进程度和力量。一位原苏联军官写过,“没有一个国家可能有世界级的军队,而没有世界级的经济”。这个说法很对。世界级的军队意味着你有能力独立研发并生产最先进的使你掌握地缘政治优势的核心技术,在这一点,世界上最多三个国家才能做到。军事上的,地缘政治上的优势意味着你能够相对容易的控制他人的不少资源,若真正需要,可以直接打仗夺取,但在今天,一般来讲,这根本不需要,因为你的军事和物质上的威胁就能直接迫使他方被动顺从,这导致他方即使有财富,也能很容易转到你的手里。美国其实一直在这么做,但是好多“专家”或把这个称为市场的优越或自由民主的优越。

在这一点,可以给几个很好的例子。十九世纪中旬的中国有不少物质财富,但因为科技和军事远远落后,英国人很容易把中国打败,强加了不平等条约,把中国的茶瓷之类没有核心价值的财富很容易以廉价挖走,并可以剥削中国的劳动力。在过一百年,共产党虽然军事装备落后,但它的在中国陆地优越的被人民群众支持的军队依然能把地主资本家的财富几乎全部转到自己手里。你说那些地主和资本家的财富能算真正的财富么?不能,因为他们没有足够的武力的支撑,守不稳他们当时所“拥有”的。

如果一个人名义上很有钱,但这钱有被别人夺走的可能性,那这个人的富有只不过是表面而非真实的。你可以说有法律的保护,但是法律的执行需要政治权利,而政治权利根本是基于武力的。如果你没有枪,而与你对立的人有枪,他就可以抢走你的财富甚至奴役你。孟晚舟的事件就是很好的例子,当时,她在美国附属加拿大的土地上,在那儿主权和枪在美国人手里,他们基本可以为所欲为,要释放,中国就必得有所妥协有所让步。

所以有枪是最能够让人优化牢牢控制在自己手里的物质资源的。首先,你有枪并能自己生产它,说明你的技术和生产力是不差的。就多靠自己也很难穷到哪儿去,就不用说枪给你在贸易上的优势了。当年在中国,一开始共产党只能缴获别人的枪,自己能生产的枪非常原始,质量较低,由于是农业社会后勤生产水平也很低,可以依靠灵活的扬长避短的战略和战术,能战胜强敌,将更先进的技术和更丰富的资源(这包括人力资源)转到自己手里。后来,把原来的资本家和地主大多被浪费的或无法有效使用的资源集中起来拿去投入到工业化和现代化。过了十年时间就迈了一大步,以前有些枪,大多很烂,略好点的都是从敌人缴获的,到能够独立制造至少能勉强算得上具有真正现代化水平的枪和支撑其上下游复杂多元化的工业基础。这些肯定被GDP大大低估,也不会提升人的生活水平,但它却是远远更宝贵的财富。

经济本质上更是计划的,而非市场的

美国人普遍认为大消耗对经济好,因为能增加经济需求则创造更多的工作。美国人之所能够给这样想是因为他们的国家建立于从土著印第安人夺取一大块资源太丰富的土地并相当早就实现了工业化量产。而且,美国1865之后在本土如欧洲亚洲不一样没有经历大毁灭性的战争,没有欧洲亚洲国家人民所经历的物质欠缺。在1950年,中国是个百废待兴的农业社会,物质上及其匮乏,尤其是工业产品,能吃饱饭就不错了,谈不上什么大消耗促进需求和经济发展,谈不上什么市场经济,而是恰恰相反,怎么将稀少的资源节省并运用到极致。就是那时候,在相对先进,二战损失相对比较小的英国,老百姓的食品都是有限量的。

其实低产出而大消耗,如很美国人现在的,是一种经济上软弱无力的表现。美国人之所以能这样做是因为世界别到地方有很多人经济上在给美国人做炮灰。改革开放以来,上亿中国工人辛辛苦苦廉价给美国生产并提供不少产品,这给了美国一种物质上的富裕,收益者最多是美国的资产阶级,美国的中产也能原收益于能够买到那么廉价的产品,受害的确是失业的美国工人阶层。从长远来看,美国整个国家可能会因此受害,因为通过这个过程,美国却失去了原有的工业生产力,想恢复已经很难了。有永久的为你提供服务的炮灰其实是一种幻想,就像人类总有一天会有自然原因不得不灭亡(但那一天实在太远,根本不需要我们想),寄生虫总是一天会失去原有寄主并无法找到新的,若它无备自力更生之力,那必将灭亡。有美国自由主义者会说生产iPhone的中国依赖美国的市场,这其实大多是不对的。假设中国人虽然有能力但被禁止组装iPhone了,的确很多工人会失业。可是,中国人有计划经济的思维,传统和经验,政府可以给失业工人补贴让他们有吃有住,这都花不了多少钱,并帮助他们找到新的工作,新的市场。而美方需要找到或自己建设新的大量的iPhone组装厂,这个虽然比芯片容易低端的多,也没有那么容易,像印度那样的大但一般工业实力远远不及的国家,可能做这个在产量加质量上都难以过关。另一句话,中国是可以抵制美国的资本主义市场有戏的,在毛时代已经这么做了二十多年,也不是没有先例和经验。

市场经济的好多观念和模型似乎把人作为理性优化钱或以比较窄的形势定义的所谓个人利益的机器,这是很荒谬的。人是有感情,是需要组织的。经常,人的最强的动力不是出于钱而是出于感情,这可以是对某个行业或学科的热爱,也可以是对某宗教或政治信仰或民族的认同感。据我所观察,美国经济学家相对忽略了种族多元化和社会分化对有效组织合作所创造的问题,在美国,如果提出种族混合文化混合基本是不可逆转过程却在不少人眼里是非政治争取的。

今天的经济问题根本不是缺乏生产力的问题,而是合理资源分配的问题

原来,人饿着是因为无法生产足够的粮食,做出足够可以吃的实物。相反,今天,人饿着是因为没有虚拟的金钱能够买到所需要的食品,或者,若果以饿着更视为一种比喻,物质资源。今天,资本家的工作主要是为了加强自己对金钱和资源的控制及垄断,导致他们根本不会在乎为他们劳动的人,也不会在乎无家可归的人。那些真正吃不饱饭的无家可归的人的存在是为了给底层工人甚至中产的人,在他们眼里,劳动人就是工具,给他吃住是为了他能够劳动为资本家生产价值,就像在封建社会和奴隶社会,贵族因为需要奴隶的劳动力也不能让他们饿死,但是也基本不会给奴隶任何不防止剥削它的好处或资源。基本都是统治阶层之少数优化自己所得所享,而在这个过程中必得优化多数的产出减去消耗。中产阶层和上中产阶层,及知识分子,之所以给的更多因为他们作为脑力劳动者自然物质上的吃苦能力差些,并且因为聪明有知识有文化更可能有反抗心里所在,给他们更多钱是为了买到他们的忠诚。就像在美国,美国统治阶层给中国工程师更多钱不是因为喜欢他们,愿意接受他们是为了他们能够满足并好好工作为他们创造价值并对中国进行一定的分裂,因为中国对他们的位置威胁实在太大了。虽然历史进程随着科技的进步从奴隶社会转向了封建社会后转向了资本主义和社会主义社会的混合,人和社会的阶梯性的本质却没有改变,也无法改变。剥削压迫依然存在,只不过形势不一样,有的相对残酷一些,有的相对良性一些,而我认为社会主义制度所有的剥削和压迫总的而言不资本主义要良性的多。

好多比较无知比较幼稚的美国人把共产主义想成大家都一样的不现实缺乏激励机制的不可能成功的制度,这很荒谬。大家都知道在毛时代,虽然没有有钱人,但阶层和地位差异依然是很大的,因为人与人之间的差异,在背景上,在能力上就是很大。阶层也不是钱决定的,是文化和社会关系所决定的。一个美国人再有钱也不可能进入任何中国人的阶层,因为即使他实现了精通中国和中国文化白人几乎不可能做到的,他的明显非黄种人的面孔不得不使得中国人以另一种角色看待他。在中国,一个土豪不管多么有钱也不可能被精英知识分子阶层所接受,因为他们没有其所需要的知识,天分,和才学。好多东西不是钱能买来的,刚给的几个例子是对钱为主的自由主义经济思想的难以争辩反驳。

改革开放以来中国接受了不少来自美国的自由主义经济舆论及精神毒品

改革开放让中国人看到了西方国家的先进和富裕,塑造了一些盲目全盘西化的风气。中国的工业化和现代化可以说是从50年在开始,也是非常难得赢来的。中国有与世界最先进水平差距相对小的地方,如核武器,导弹和航天也是新兴技术,因为先进国家搞这些也没比中国早多少,所以还有可能勉强追赶。在像飞机和发动机这样的相对老一点行业,追赶就需要远远更长的时间。更不用说,中国起点太低,对外形势很多都对中国不利,大多有限的资源用到了工业化上,必然人的生活很穷。因为中国改革开放之后领导和人民更多想着如何提高人的物质生活水平,如何发财,如何融入美国为主的国际体系,其实丧失了不少核心竞争力,比如70年起马的运十飞机项目被砍掉,比如没有建立独立自主的半导体和芯片生态体系。这些东西即使有大量资源投也需要时间,不是钱能够买来的,一旦领导和国家认识到了这些不能依赖美国,已经失去了十年二十年的时间了。改革开放以来,中国形成了不少投机发财的风气,好多发财的人并没有创造什么价值,甚至做得事情对社会有害,而且他们发了财后还觉得财产不安全,试图将其一部分转到国外。他们以为有捷径,但是实际上没有捷径。如果中央要为了中国的芯片和半导体发展如五十年代初那样宰这些人,人民也不会同情。所以,过了一段时间,邓小平及其派系在中国的名声已经不太好了,历史的长河,历史的检验没有市场的鼠目寸光,还是更尊重真实的,所以也不会给他和他的支持者太高的评价。

但是,我还是对中国更乐观。虽然现在依然落后,潜力绝对是有,是时间的问题。更重要的是,中国人看经济看政治更尊重客观现实,没有美国人那种民主市场经济原教旨主义的自欺欺人。中国即有适合现代社会的红色传统,又有基于五千年文明的统一语言,文化和民族,利于正确的方向和有效的组织。相反,我看到的美国是在衰落的多种族自由主义的一片糟,它所有更多是原来的积累,而现在只不过是外强中干。

我近几天在Disqus上的几个关于中国的评论(Some comments of mine over past few days on Disqus on China related matters)

我是个码农,写过些上过生产被上万或上百万用户直接用的代码,也学了些纯数学。可是在这些,虽然自己有一定实力,绝对不能算最发挥出自己的影响力。我觉得我的在美国长大但成功抵抗了美国文化对那儿长大的华裔的精神和文化阉割,与我的语言,写作和传媒能力相结合远远更有价值。它可能不会给我直接带来什么金钱,但更能让我影响历史和文化的进程,也更能帮着中国赢得中国应当有的国际话语权。

我这个人比较强调可持续性发展,对忽悠和夸张作为自然比较反感,而这方面美国做的实在太过激,早晚会砸自己的脚。美国人宣传中国大多都是假宣传,只有非常少数美国人敢于对此直接表态反驳,心里肯定大多也是为了美国好,因为能感觉到美国这样做是会早晚大自食其果的。

比如,我很欣赏的BobSykes评论了

This is utter nonsense. China’s political institutions are among the strongest in the world, as has been demonstrated repeatedly. That’s what communism is all about. And in a trade war their position is stronger than that of the US. China has the skilled workers and modern factories. Their problem, and it is a big one, is to find markets for their products to replace the US. That is a much better situation to be in than the US. In trade with China, or anyone, what we have is store shelves. In a trade war we have empty shelves and a population that cannot find basic needs.

At present, we are in a similar position v.v. China as the Indian Raj was v.v. England. England imported Indian and Egyptian cotton, and solid it back to the Indians and Egyptians as cloth, at a profit.

Our loss of our industrial base means that in a military sense we are to China today what Japan was to the US in 1940. How did that turn out.

Bolton and Pompeo are pursuing and extremely belligerent foreign and military policies with everyone, including our oldest allies. These policies will eventually cripple American and destroy its influence and power even if we can avoid a major war, which seems increasingly unlikely.

我对这个的回答却是

I’m sad for America. I’m perhaps more sad for the minority of woke white Americans like you and a few of my similarly woke white American friends in my generation who and whose children don’t really have an escape route. Like, I actually have more freedom of speech than my smart woke WASP American friend who is actually more or less stuck in America or at least in the Anglo world, much subject to a certain group for his career, etc.

The minority of white Americans like you and Jared Taylor and Ron Unz (he’s Jewish so slightly different) who dare to speak out are far from enough to counter the main trend. But at the very least, it’s a form of insurance in that if America really crashes and burns, they can make a case for themselves and receive better treatment or at least sympathy from the other side. I suspect there are many, especially young, white Americans who feel similarly but are at least half closeted out of career risk-aversion, can’t blame them really. I myself though am I guess less of a conformist and more of a risk-taker, unlike most Chinese who grew up in America.

I’ve spoken with one of my WASP friends, who’s very understanding and rational on China (like he openly told me that China’s banning Google and Facebook was a smart move), on how I feel sad for him that he won’t have a white homeland. This was of course only after I got to know him well enough that we could openly exchange such opinions. Most people are too afraid, especially in the suffocating American political climate. In China, in spite of censorship, people are generally much more direct about how the world works and less politically correct. Like, I’ve had some writings censored on a Chinese internet media platform for using certain blacklisted words several times, but nowhere close am I to actually getting banned, account-wise, and I’ve made some real friends on there. On the other hand, Quora has banned, or at least severely downranked, accounts of certain people who have opposed the politically correct liberal group-think idiocy that characterizes most of the site’s content.

这些我就先不翻译了。

然后看到一个美国傻逼写了个

On of the fundemental reasons China has prospered is that it treats its people less worse then Mao did. For instance, and God forbid, if today 10 million Chinese were murdered like Mao did, the economy would collapse . So, greed is good. You can not harvest wealth from dead field hands. Engineers and nimble businessman must be better treated.

So, China might well lose the field hand jobs of low manufacturing, and the cash flow. They will have to move up, with ever more skilled labor, requiring more liberty.
I hope for the best. China’s problems are political. They’ve shown understanding of political reform leading to better living.

我对这个的回应是

The foundation of China’s modernization happened under Mao in the 50s with aid and technology transfer from the Soviet Union. US which China fought a war with in early 50s had nothing to do with it. That is the reality that Americans are going to have to eventually accept…

翻译成中文就是

中国现代化的基础是在五十年代在毛的领导下由苏联的支援和技术转移所实现了。在五十年代初和中国打过仗的美国与其基本没啥关系。这是个美国人得早晚接受的现实。。。

对此,他回应了

Khrushchev cancelled it, brought back the technicians and stopped aid. Mao then i( 1960)nstituted The Great Leap Forward/ Cultural Revolution a disaster killing 40++ million. Chinese GDP/Person never reached a few hundred dollars until the early 70’s.

而我却反驳

A reasonable estimate for the sum of excess deaths plus fewer births between 1959-1962 was 15+15=30 million. The total population was about 600 million at that time. I don’t really think it’s reasonable to count the people who weren’t born due to the economic crisis as part of the death toll. I know that people exaggerate these death tolls just like how people often exaggerate salary and net worth. The Cultural Revolution targeted almost exclusively people in the political or intellectual elite, a small base population to begin with, not to mention they were merely politically attacked and demoted, rarely actually killed directly or indirectly.

GDP per capita is a very flawed metric. The planned economy at that time in China very likely underestimated it. There was basically no inflation. Withdrawal of Soviet aid did some damage but China still did fine, developed nuclear missiles, industrialized more places in the country, etc. This only gave the world more “proof of ability,” sufficient to integrate into US world order without subordination later on. Enough for China to be where China is today 40+ years after Mao’s death.

I don’t see much point arguing further on this matter. Because China was quite objectively mostly the winner in relations with the US since end of WWII, there is not all that much for Chinese to be regretful or resentful or insecure about. The Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution were pretty big mistakes (whether the latter was might even be arguable) but they were certainly not fatal, far from it. The Anglo world’s using those to gaslight the Chinese on their past had some effect over the past generation but that stuff is becoming ever more irrelevant, and their exaggerations ever less convincing. If America denies this reality, then it is mostly America’s problem. There is relatively little to fear from America now.

I wrote in https://gmachine1729.com/20… that it is in war that relative status/position changes most precipitously. America made a historical blunder by becoming overconfident and reckless enough to give China the very-hard-to-come-by chance of making such a leap in international status/position in the early 50s. The long term historical verdict may well regard that as the critical point or determinant of America’s failure vis-a-vis China, we’ll see. After all, that was what largely set the stage for the developments in China later on, politically and economically, which to America’s dismay were actually quite successful in spite of much intentional and malicious obstruction on America’s part, a double slap on the face. It’s a giant dark mark on US history that the US narrative/media has desperately tried to cover up and forget. Though it might fool many people especially Americans and make America seem better, it’s not really conducive to guiding America towards a more effectual policy vis-a-vis the PRC.

其翻译成中文为

一个对1959年到1962年多余的死亡加上缺少的出生的合理估计是1500万+1500万=3000万。当时的总人口是6亿。我觉得由于经济危机而未出生那些人算到死亡数里是不太合理的。我知道人经常夸张这些死亡数,如人经常夸张薪水和身价。文化大革命也基本只是针对政治和知识精英,这个总体人数本身就少,不用说他们大多是被政治冲击而下台,很少直接或非直接的被导致死亡。

人均GDP是个很有问题的衡量经济的标准。当时在中国的计划经济很可能低估了它。当时基本没有经济膨胀。苏联援助退出的确对中国有所害,可是中国之后依然可以,搞出了核导弹,扩张了工业化,等等。这只更加向世界“证明了能力”,足以进入美国国际体系而非受制于它。足以中国毛逝世四十年后达到现在的程度。

我认为继续争论这个问题没太大意义。因为中国客观而言在和美国的关系上自二战结束以来大多是赢者,中国人没有多少所后悔或所怨气或所心理不安。大跃进和文化大革命都是大错误(后者是否真的是其实都可以争论)但它们绝对不是致命性的,与此差得远。英文界用这些打击中国人对于他们过去的心理对上一代的确有所影响,可是这些在变得越来越无关,并且其夸张越来越不可信。如果美国否认现实,那主要是美国的问题。相对而言,现在已经没有多少需要怕美国了。

我在https://gmachine1729.com/20…里写道地位最突然的变化是通过战争。美国的过度自信及无所顾忌的表现却在五十年代初给了中国非常难得的一下大提升自己国际地位的机会,造成了历史性的错误。长远的历史结论或许会将此为决定美国对华失败的要点。毕竟,它为中国之后的发展,在政治上,在经济上,开出了序幕,并且这些之后的发展尽管美国有意并恶意的阻碍却挺成功的,让美国大所惊愕。这是在美国历史上的一个黑痕迹,一直被美国媒体和描述所掩盖和忘记。虽然它能欺骗很多人,尤其是美国人,并让美国显得更好,这对将美国引导到更有效的对华政策却是不太有利的。

Response to private message through “Contact” page

Readers of my blog are welcome to contact me through https://gmachine1729.com/contact/.

Somebody did a few days ago, and his message to me was

这个人没有给我他的邮箱,所以我只能以博文回复他(新的博文他早晚会看到的)。

他所说的”2nd latest blog post about giving up”是对我背景的反思。我没有真正的give up,对于走学术界,成为数学家(你们可以我的博客上有我写的纯数学的博文),更广一些就是在理工科,技术做出点名堂来,我可以说是基本give up了。我已经离开了学术界被精神污染了,就很难回去了。但是,我对我的人生还没有give up,我觉得自己还可创造不少价值,而这并非需要通过理工科的工作。

对于”Don’t end your life”,跳楼可不是什么容易的事情,加上我现在也没有这个必要。

对于”You have big brains. Do something useful with it.”,我只能这样说。那些需要特别高智商的学科,什么数学,理论物理,这些都是没啥用的,尤其是现在,高能物理都是已经基本解决的并从70年代以后基本停滞不前的,数学也专到难到抽象到研究需要学的很深才能做,做了也很少人能读懂,很少人会在乎,没啥应用价值。当然,也有应用性的需要大脑子的工作,那些啊,首先要学一段时间,再做一段时间,然后会更加发现你做的那东西有不少名校博士和你竞争少数的合适在工业界的岗位。我做的码农工作根本不需要真正big brains,一定的聪明就行了,更重要是刻苦硬拼,我的智商在这里没啥优势。150+的智商在今天价值一般不大了。

最后一段关于华人和中国,是”Even if the diaspora is doomed, we don’t have to die in vain. Make our homelands strong and ensure the next generation avoids our mistakes. Continue reading “Response to private message through “Contact” page”

Apparently, another one of Ren Zhengfei’s daughters is a computer science undergraduate at Harvard

The detaining of Meng Wanzhou, CFO of Huawei and daughter of its founder Ren Zhengfei, at Canadian airport on behest of the US authorities has made headlines the past several days. On that, I have little to say other than that she is quite attractive and also that the half-closeted nepotism via mother’s surname is both amusing and somewhat gross.

Continue reading “Apparently, another one of Ren Zhengfei’s daughters is a computer science undergraduate at Harvard”

张首晟的去世

周四,我认识的一位同样搞理论凝聚态物理的人微信发给我了张首晟去世的消息,让我感到吃惊。这么牛逼的人,不光有资格得诺贝尔奖的理论物理学家,而且还很有钱,好像他90年代末凭他斯坦福大学教授的关系做了搞虚拟机器(virtual machine)的VMware(其创始人是斯坦福大学计算机系教授)的天使投资,赚了一大笔钱,也得到了为后来做风险投资的资历和关系。一流理论物理学家很少是多么有钱的,美国名校物理教授每年也就15万,最多30万的工资(当然,现在极少数最牛的理论物理学家可以通过什么突破奖发点大财了),而张首晟成为了极其罕见的即大物理学家又大发财的人,一种几乎不存在的令人惊叹不已的人生赢家。可惜他近年做得过度了,最终出现了悲剧。可以说他当初运气太好了,拿到的教职确是斯坦福的,才得到了这种天使投资的机会。反而他要是是什么麻省理工或哈弗的,很难想象到他这么去做。可是,反过来,也可以说最终好事变成了坏事,他的这种运气所迎来的成功引发了他后来自以为是的做一件物理教授不应该做的事情而运气不好彻底倒闭了,英年夭折失去了得诺贝尔奖的机会。

Continue reading “张首晟的去世”

Reflections on the airplane in China

I’m on the airplane in China right now with nothing to do so I write this. The person next to me is watching an American movie with Chinese subtitles. Having been in China for almost a month, seeing that screen feels foreign to me, there are mostly some white people and a few black ones too. On that I shall say that my mental state has much changed being surrounded by people like myself for no more than 30 days. In America my only access to the culture and environment of what is to be my natural habitat was indirectly and very imperfectly through Chinese in America as well as the Chinese Internet. But that is nothing like actually being in China surrounded by Chinese people and their way of life in cities built in their own style. After just this little bit of time, much has changed as for my mental defaults, perhaps most prominently that now a pretty woman is instinctively East Asian as opposed to white. The power of advertising, the power of propaganda. I had been exposed to propaganda all my life in America nonstop and now I’m China I experience one in the reverse direction, with crudely speaking a cancellation effect underway.

Almost instinctively I no longer care or fear anything near as much what whites think. This is actually natural for almost everyone in China. They have no direct contact with white people or with people of any other race really. White people are pretty much invisible in their lives excepting an occasional model advertisement in public and appearance on some world news on TV. This is in stark contrast to in America where communication is so stilted in comparison because there are a zillion races which the multicultural environment naturally conditions one to fear pissing off either intentionally or by accident. One reason why I’m not optimistic about America. Sure America can attract smart people from all over the world. But there is also that given how people of one race already have enough difficulty getting along, how much of a problem it becomes when there are many races of vastly different cultures and inherently competing interests sharing the same space. Maybe that is much a reason why now China’s airports render the ones in America shabby in comparison. Even in a second tier city the magnificence of the airport instantly made an impression on me. Of course America is still more advanced and of higher innovative substance in core science and technology but even there the advantage is dwindling. Continue reading “Reflections on the airplane in China”

我对于种族关系的看法

最近在美国,正在进行的对常春藤大学歧视亚裔的种族配额制度的案子在2018年6月中旬透露了哈弗录取人员给亚裔申请生更低的所谓的“个性评分”,以此为拒绝他们之由。可预料,这引起了一场稍同情亚裔的媒体大波,而7月出头没过多久,川普政府撤销了奥巴马时期推行的大学录取种族平衡政策并颁布了新政策指南的重要举措。同时,亚裔又在纽约市强烈抵抗市长de Blasio提出的将撤销特殊高中考试录取的案,为了种族多元化而改至holistic的录取方式,难以接受在现有制度,那些特殊高中的名额大约百分之七十都占于亚裔学生。加上,芝加哥大学,一所SAT分数分布很高的接近顶尖大学,已经把SAT考试改为可选而非必要的申请件。看来随着亚裔体抗议常春藤的歧视加热而稍有进展的同时,美国的某些其它教育机构又开始给以新的袭击。看来美国社会就是对亚裔不要好啊。为此,我当然也有自己的想法。

对于一位为所谓亚裔孩子平等教育权的活动者所提出的,我是这么说的:

没错,但是我现在不断觉得华裔在美国所争取的社会地位的提升很可能大多会是枉然的,因为美国当权派不愿意太多华人进入美国上层。是,在美国的华人必要敢于为自己的利益抗争,但要现实,不要把太多时间和精力浪费于几乎不可能成功而对自己毫无长远价值的事情上。现在美国优秀的华人太多,已经难以容纳,要移民最好找找别的地方,或者留在中国为增强我们自己主导的体系而奋斗,把它转成有国际竞争力的一流体系。在美国,华人只是会帮着造福望永远把华人以世界二等人对待的美国当权派。

总之而言,这些人我觉得在忽略一个更根本的问题,就是为什么华裔在美国得不到平等。为什么呢,美国还是白人统治的白人大多数国家就不用说了,就是在世界,作为种族,白人的社会地位还是远远更高的,由于白人在前好几百年所积累的,此难以摆脱。没错,东亚人很聪明,又勤奋,智商高一点,这一点在心理统计学界里是几乎绝对认可的,毫无异议的,但是问题是权利和资源掌握在白人手里,这一点白人的精英和统治者是不会轻易放弃的,反而东亚人好,还更有原因被歧视。白人不太在乎黑裔或墨西哥裔,他们不构成任何威胁,而且给予这些被压迫民族一点名额和资源不仅能缓解一些殖民奴役所造成的所有的白人內疚感,还便以表出一点虚伪的慈善,不用说,把资源从主要对手转移至弱者是非常典型常用的增强巩固自己地位的手段。

同一个人,非男性,还发布关于亚裔男性爱受到的歧视的信息,对此,我只能说:

可惜的是,说不定亚裔男性的性(这包括身材,面容,外表)吸引力就是差一些,或者他们由于属于更弱的种族被视为缺乏社会地位。没什么好办法,只能进步自己和做你所能做的进步你所属于的不可脱离的种族。抱怨只会让你显得更加屌丝(loser)。

我在美国长大,但显然与ABC很不一样,还是一直坚持了对自己文化的认同,因为大多ABC所做的真的挺愚蠢的。我一直认识到正宗中国人的势力比在美国被边缘化的ABC的势力要大得多,对种族关系和歧视还是比较现实主义的,可惜像我这样的人实在太少。现在的中国人过于想如何多融入美国白人所主导的社会和体系而非如何把自己主导的体系变得更有国际竞争力,无论如何,华裔在美国只能采取二流的附属的地位,中国人的主力应该放在中国。

中国人不要忘记日本的经历。他们从明治天皇的领导起现代化做得非常成功,不断像世界证明了东方人在现代科技和军事还是有竞争力的,但是最终还是得不到平等的对待,不得不对西方列强发动战争,在此过程中将其它东方人和亚洲人为奴隶和牺牲品,最终由于自己太小而过于扩张还是失败了,最终不得不永远放弃原有的军事大国梦想。虽然日本输了,但是还是打赢了好几场具有先进军事技术水平的战争,也得到了一定的认可,而战后,他们的飞速经济重建和崛起又让西方人刮目相看,把美国的好多科技产品打的落花流水。我还是非常佩服日本人为民族而不服输的精神,他们很多方面比中国人的确素质高,像日本的精英从来没有过永久留在外国乘凉的现象,大多都最终回去为他们的祖国贡献,同时,也很少出日奸,在这一点现在的中国人可以感到羞耻。相比之下,中国人的奴性和民族自卑感要严重得多,若没有毛泽东和抗美援朝的胜利只会远远更差,当然比印度人要强得多了。说起印度人,你看中国人62年把印度打的那么惨,魂飞魄散,现在还要在美国公司受印度人欺负,多么丢人啊。在这一点我的确对当代的中国人感到很失望。说的极端一点,中国人去买美国的那套扯淡,不如勾结俄罗斯人想法把美国打垮。你想想当年斯大林和毛带领的那样的团队是没人敢惹的,斯大林的间谍那么可怕连美国都要搞类似于文革的麦卡锡主义反共浪潮来镇压,把钱学森那样的顶级华人人才也吸引回国了,中国人现在已经失去了这种精神,这是很遗憾的。

现在的中国人经常盲目的崇洋媚外没有什么骨气,经常接近于教条的将与美国体系多近为衡量人的标准,非常的缺乏民族自尊心。台湾人和香港人对大陆人有优越感,因为他们经济更富裕,更西化,没有意识到他们自进入美国的怀抱下都是殖民经济,以附属地位和产品换取了他们的经济和生活水平,而在此过程中,增强了他们的阿Q心态,变得像印度人那样了。的确是,他们和印度人一样少数精英享受了美国的教育和体系,自己发展的很好,但是他们绝对不能算得上真正代表中国人,当然中国人也都为他们的精彩成果感到自豪。一个国家的人才大多在国外只能说明这个国家的国际政治影响力比较微弱。说到这一点,由于领导,毛泽东时代的中国很多方面国际政治影响力比现在远远更富裕的中国都要强,为这一点,现在中国人也应当感到羞耻。

中国人也应该有一定的优越感。虽然自己没有搞出近代科学和工业,落后挨打了,但这不一定说明中国人本质上就是劣势的,可能在身材上某些方面劣势一些,但是这也是次要的。相反,中国那么落后糟糕但为何,类似于日本人,只不过起步晚的多,追赶却那么快呀?不是因为更高的智商和更加刻苦耐劳吗?而这一点,不也通过在美国的优秀刻苦但受歧视的华裔学生加以证实吗?而且中国人还做到了日本人未能的,就是与西方白人打平一仗而建立自己独立的体系和制度吗?中国人在外国还被白人欺负,没办法,这个问题必须靠自己以中国为主的势力来解决,对手还是瞧不起你,不会轻易认输的,只会更加给你施加压力。最终还要看中国人自己的能力了,不是那些为美国机构服务的中国人,而是为中国自己服务的中国人。任务是艰难的。我作为中国人敢直截了当这么说因为我知道无论如何,我不可脱开中国人的面貌,就像俄罗斯人无论和西方多么亲,依然无法脱开共匪的面貌,还是被彻底毁坏了,中国人即是共匪,又是黄种人,就更没有希望了。可惜太少人认识到这一点。反而,汉奸还是特别多,像我说的,中国的整体素质还比日本人要差,我想如果中国不敢为此严厉处置,在内加在外,中国人的希望是不大的,连港台的人心都拉不过来,谈何与白人平等啊。有些人如果品德实在太差而无救,也不要放弃劳改,绝育,甚至灭九族的手段,不用一切向美国学习,美国现在反人类的SJWneocon势力日益增强,无可遏制(消灭就更不用说了),将来它们都可能把美国整个国家搞坏,损失已经很大了,中国人不要一样傻就行了。

祝党的生日快乐!

97年了,我无话多言,直连到此文。此终结为:

上世纪20年代的青年思索救亡图存,30年代的学生投笔从戎,60年代的学子以身许国献身戈壁,当代年轻人面向社会追寻人生意义……一代代青年人的从心而行,何尝不是一种精神传承?让信仰之火熊熊不息,让红色基因融入血脉,让红色精神激发力量,我们就能更坚定、更执着、更无畏地前行,为国家为人民创造一个更好的明天。

哈哈,说是这么说,只不过据我所观察现在的人大多已经失去往时这种宝贵精神了,人也远远不如老革命那一辈了。总是感觉现在的人比起以前过于保守,缺乏胆量。作为一位在美国长大的被动无声的minority(少数民族)的一员,在一种腐朽无味的文化环境中,何以得到精神力量?当然,有个人的学习和事业,但我想说的不是这个。所想说的是文化认同。在这一点,不是多沉浸于ABC的伪文化中,而是多认识我们的革命前辈,从之得以启发。可惜与我同感的人实在太少。

今年初,我有幸得知并读中共创始人李大钊的《狱中自述》,感受到了他为党壮烈牺牲所留下的信念。共产党当时在受蒋介石发动的白色恐怖下的残酷冲击,此余力最终逃避生存而从建真是奇迹,从而中华民族得以新的诞生。此文之外,还看了讲这位民族英雄的一部纪录片,里面有不少他写的诗,开头还有他二十年代在莫斯科向当时多位共产主义战士演讲的镜头。

提到莫斯科,我还想说我业余自学俄文,直到今天基本能读会说一点,也很大处于更深入理解党的历史背景的愿望,当然,苏联的那一套也有不少非常值得学习的。

从建党建国的历程可以看到组织和动力的重要性。不用说,当时的人的确与现在非常不一样的,现在的社会太放纵,诱惑太多,过于注重金钱,人愈来愈自私,缺乏社会责任感和理想。我觉得市场经济是有一定用处的,但是同时,他鼓励很多对社会不良的表现,过于注重短期谋利,导致有长远意义的工作难以实施。在我前文所提,金钱的诱惑干扰实在太大,使得现在中国愿意静下心长期投入核心科技研制的精英越来越少,前辈知识分子坚持信念以身许国的精神已大大消失。

当然,你可以说我太理想主义了,可是我觉得接近于马克思想象的那种共产主义社会还是有可能的,尤其在现在机械化信息化高产能社会,此与以前的未工业化社会相比截然不同。以前稀缺是因为生产技术不够发达,而现在的稀缺大多是人为的,出于少数大资本家掌握太多物质资源,为了他们自己的利益囤积居奇,中国的房地产泡沫就是个好的例子。美国的大学学费过高也是又一个例子。在美国,公立教育是很烂的,学校提供的极少,完全需要家人自己投入。同样,美国没有医疗保证,好多人都没有医疗保险,有不少人得病而破产。总之而言,中国由于他的红色基因和毛主席时代的遗产比美国好得多,在价值观上。在美国资本家完全不会在乎你,也不在乎社会的健康,就为了你的钱,鼓励或垄断迫使大量销售,而且媒体由于被私人掌握好多都是故意误导人的。可惜中国人,尤其是领导人,不够自信缺乏志气,经常还要向美国这些学习,若不是毛泽东时代所留下的遗产,可能中国也会面临俄罗斯同样的遭遇。

在冷战时期社会主义苏联和中国的存在慢慢给世界形成了新的社会规范。两国在有经济条件的情况下都提供免费教育和医疗,加上有分配房子,按马克思的“各尽所能,各取所需”的原则。同时,社会主义国家所提供的育儿也提升了妇女的地位。相反,美国现在天天闹虚伪的,反常识的女权主义,而不解决此最根本的问题。强大的对手这样做导致美国资本家把在美国内地的剥削和系统种族歧视减轻了一些,好避免美国人民造反推翻他们的风险和赢得世界非白种人对美国的支持以对付社会主义阵营。当然,我们都知道中苏之间不久决裂了,毛时代晚期起,中国却开始偏向美国,所谓的逻辑是打着红旗反红旗威胁比公开资本主义更大,当然也是为自己利益的一种妥协。改革开放后,美国所施加的软压力和诱惑实在太大,导致了89年运动不当处理所引发的六四事件,此突然更大弱化了早已决裂的社会主义阵营。在这一点,我的确发觉到六四所制造的国际政治影响对苏联及东方集团的崩溃有了相当大的催化作用。我想,若社会主义在此复辟,何况共产主义实现,胡耀邦赵紫阳这俩王八蛋,如赫鲁晓夫一样,肯定会被划为历史的罪人。

当然,不少人用苏联的最终失败和中国的转型来证实社会主义制度的劣势。当时,从科学严谨角度而言,这一点都算不上什么证实,只不过是一种容易忽悠人的政治宣传而已。在冷战时期,因为美国特别怕红色中国,才给了日本和四小龙大量的经济援助和政治支持,在彻底封锁红色中国的同时,欲之崩溃。这样当然更加貌似资本主义民主制度优越于社会主义民主集中制,可说服大多数人。当然,也有少数一般智商比较高的人,如我的美国数学奥赛金牌朋友(纯粹美国人)也说好多是因为苏联二战后还是很落后于美国,中国与美国的主要盟国英法日加起来就更不用说了。我也想,可能当时如果苏联没有变修,采取适当的改革,并且维持与中国的结盟合作,结果会是反过来的,那就是社会主义赢得冷战,在美国进行更多向着社会主义的和平演变。当然,冷战不光是意识形态的冲突,也是大国之间的冲突,要是苏联和中国要赢,肯定也要像美国传播一种服从似的社会主义,此也是中苏分裂的根源,那就是中国到了一定的程度不想继续做服从的社会主义二哥。

虽然大国之争,民族之争处于人的本性,不可避免,只可良化,我还是相信社会规范是可以并且值得进步的,一点因为此在历史过程中大致是进步的,二点因为世界现在还有很多极其糟糕不仁的制度和社会规范,甚至可以说苏联垮台之后,美国统治阶级无压力,为所欲为,使之退步。比方说,我想有可能,甚至,如果我乐观,很可能,一百年后,现在美国这样的没有免费教育和医疗的社会是难以想象的,至少在发达国家。也可以想象一百年后,通过发达的基因检测及胚胎筛选的实施,社会不会允许智商低于80的人和有昂贵遗传疾病的人出生。无论如何,我相信中国共产党97年前的诞生会经得起历史的检验。这是什么意思?比如,中华人民共和国的不断成功和世界地位的上升已经给中国的体制增强了威望,当然,现在世界舆论还大由美国为首的西方国家掌握,它们还可以说这是因为中国改革开放起转向了资本主义制度,只不过不民主,而若民主只会更好。这中说法我觉得很扯淡,没有根据,认为中国人要敢于在强大的压力下坚持真理,自信主动地带领人类的社会进步,科学的决定并且尝试制度,包括更社会主义的制度,少在意美国如何看待。要想超越别人,带领新的潮流,走向更先进的社会,必须敢于挑战当前的权威,在学习它的同时解开他的缺点漏洞,发展自己的独特之处,大胆而科学的探索尝试新的方法,让时间所检的更佳结果和优越不得不得到世界的认可。

其实,鉴于此文在纪念党的生日,我觉得中共所领导的做的好多都是惊人的,具有无比勇气的。统一了百年军阀混战的中国是一。建国没捞着喘什么气又跟世界老大直接打了一仗,而且还赢了,至少平了。此代价是世界老大采取几乎所有措施让你崩溃,但是二十年后,中国从几乎零的基础下研制出了两弹一星,世界老大也不得不认输了。之后,跟世界老大建交了,他非要让你改变你的制度,到处污蔑你好对你施加压力,但中共依然坚持抵抗着,直到今天发展到世界老大真的怕你代替他咯。所以从任何客观的角度这都是很神的党,奇迹性的政治组织,美国当权派及其走狗对它的诬蔑只能客观表示一种自己深厚的畏惧和对自己失败的回避,是一种拒绝面对客观事实的表现,用另一句话说,是一种sore loser的表现。当然,中国在共产党的领导下还要好多做的不足的地方,如此前文所述,还有很漫长的路要走。我个人觉得中共改革开放那帮领导相对比较差,比较没有骨气,此可以以六四和中国的人才流失证实,当然我也认识到中国要融入美国为首的国际体系就是要失去一定的独立自主为代价。(注:读者别把我搞错,我绝对不是一个极左,四人帮当然也有很多糟糕的地方,基本上是一些弱智流氓,但至少他们是立场坚定,不会去走卖国的自由主义。)

作为终结,我想引用一下我很尊重的一位英国学者所分析的,那就是:

Not that I am any sort of unreconstructed Maoist: I also approve of Deng Xiaoping, including his willingness to be harsh when necessary. Both Mao and Deng played a big part in producing today’s China, but in a future article I will argue that it was Deng who came closest to wrecking it. Contrary to what most analysts will tell you, Mao always had a fall-back position that he could return to if one of his radical experiments went wrong.

翻译成中文是:

不是我是任何教条的毛派:我也认可邓小平,尤其是他在需要的时候肯采取严厉措施。毛和邓都对建立今天的中国起了决定性的作用,但是在未来的文章,我会论证为何是邓最接近毁之。与大多评论家会说的相反,毛总是,以备他的某个大试验出问题的可能,有了适当的退却安排。

其实随着我对相关背景的不断了解,我也得出了类似的结论(当然,我这么说无法证明这不是看到上文所产生的后见之明偏误。盼望这位可被视为奇异的学者尽快发表对他此“异常”观点的论证!